Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Vegas 96, X-Factor (2024)

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 96. It is a considerable step up from the most recent Apex event. In the main event, Caio Borralho receives his much-deserved opportunity to break into the Middleweight title mix opposite long-time contender, Jared Cannonier. Prospects like Michael Morales and Tabatha Ricci also get a chance to move up the ladder opposite divisional veterans, and there’s also going to be a couple of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) trophies handed out for anybody who’s still watching that reality competition.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

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Strawweight: Angela Hill (-120) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+100)

Best Win for Hill? Luana Pinheiro For Ricci? Tecia Pennington
Current Streak: Hill has won two in a row, while Ricci rebounded in her last fight
X-Factor: Hill is nearly a decade older
How these two match up: This has classic Hill split decision written all over it.

Hill just finds herself in close fights all the time. A Muay Thai striker with varied weapons and good movement, Hill is the most active athlete in her division. Her wrestling and grappling have come a long way, and generally, her improvement in her late 30s has been very impressive.

Ricci has pretty quickly established herself as a player at 115 pounds. Despite standing at just 5’1,” “Baby Shark” is deceptively strong in the clinch and routinely able to toss bigger opponents to the floor. She’s an active kickboxer as well, unafraid to mix it up to get the wrestling going.

I can picture this fight perfectly in my head. I feel like I know exactly how it plays out, because we’ve seen Hill in this situation many times. She’ll win a lot of striking exchanges, but she won’t be able to hurt Ricci badly enough to really pull away. Ricci will struggle to drag down Hill consistently, but she’ll score a bit of control along the way. It’ll come down to the third round, and a tiring Hill will do more moving than landing, even if she probably still scores the best shots.

The judges flip a coin. Per usual, “Overkill” lands on the wrong side of the close decision equation.

Prediction: Ricca via decision

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Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert (+245) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-305)

Best Win for Meerschaert? Bruno Silva For Shahbazyan? Brad Tavares
Current Streak: Both won their last bout
X-Factor: Shahbazyan’s confidence and conditioning are permanently in question
How these two match up: Somebody is getting finished.

I love fighters like “GM3.” Nobody is expecting a sudden title run from the veteran submission ace, but he goes for it every time and shows up to work consistently. He’s a tremendous finisher on the floor with sneaky power, but he’s just not quite a good enough athlete to really put it all together consistently.

Shahbazyan, conversely, is an excellent athlete with excellent speed and power. His boxing technique is remarkably crisp for 185-pounds, and his wrestling usually looks great too! The problem is that when Shahbazyan tires, he tends to fall apart completely. At 26 years of age, there’s still time for Shahbazyan to shore up these issues, but he has to demonstrate that improvement consistently for fans to forget his bad string of defeats from 2020-2023.

The path to victory for Meerschaert is clear enough. If he can get his left kick ripping and shoot from some takedowns early, he can aim to survive the first and force a mistake as Shahbazyan tires. The problem is that Shahbazyan is going to be monstrously faster than Meerschart in the early goings, and “Golden Boy” tends to get his opponents out of there quickly if they cannot keep up.

At 36 years old with 50-some professional fights on his record, Meerschaert isn’t incredibly durable anymore.

Prediction: Shahbazyan via knockout

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Welterweight: Michael Morales (-600) vs. Neil Magny (+440)

Best Win for Morales? Jake Matthews For Magny? Johnny Hendricks
Current Streak: Morales is undefeated at 16-0 with four straight UFC wins, while Magny rebounded last time out
X-Factor: The Magny test has upset many prospects
How these two match up: This is a very classic Neil Magny versus up-and-coming prospect booking.

Morales appears special. The 25-year-old Ecuadorian talent is a physical monster, seemingly the biggest and strongest man at 170 pounds. He pairs that strength with excellent boxing fundamentals and a wrestling background. He clearly hits very hard, having stopped 11 foes via knockout and forced the remaining survivors to back away from exchanges.

Magny, meanwhile, is a veteran of the highest order. A clinch specialist, the rangy American wears foes down in grinding matches and then takes over when they fatigue. It isn’t always pretty, but Magny has racked up an incredible amount of wins over the years opposite some extremely legitimate opposition.

Magny is always dangerous, and his late-round rally opposite Mike Malott proved it last time out. On the whole, however, it feels like Magny is slowing down quite a bit. His offensive kickboxing used to be a lot more threatening, whereas now it feels like Magny is exclusively a wrestler.

Against a sharp boxer skilled at repelling takedowns, that sounds like really bad news. Worse yet, Morales has shown a lot of patience and composure for a young finisher. He’s not likely to gas himself chasing the finish. As such, he’ll be content to knock around Magny without taking undue risks, which really limits the chances of an upset.

Prediction: Morales via decision

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Middleweight: Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin

Best Win for Loder? Leon Shahbazyan For Valentin? Samuil Shelest
Current Streak: Loder debuts having won two in a row on the regional scene, while Valentin debuts on a four-fight win streak
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for both?
How these two match up: The Middleweight TUF champion will be decided in a “Wrestler vs. Striker” battle.

Loder is the wrestler here, an All-American for Northern Iowa. The Southpaw has developed a rangy kickboxing game to compliment his mat skills, but he’s still best known for savaging opponents with elbows from top position. Valentin, conversely, is a brawler who cuts his teeth in Ares FC. He fights aggressively and throws with power but has actually stopped most of his wins via submission.

I’ll confess to favoritism: Loder has been my wrestling coach for most of the last four years. If you’re looking for ultra objective analysis, look elsewhere.

Regardless, Loder’s wrestling skill is far and away the most important aspect of this fight. He’s going to be able to drag down Valentin. The question becomes whether Loder can force an early finish or continually wrestle for three rounds to a victory, or if Valentin can survive the early bad positions and make something happen late.

I’ve seen Loder ragdoll enough world class grapplers to know where my money would go.

Prediction: Loder via submission

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Featherweight: Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall

Best Win for Buzukja? Connor Matthews For Marshall? Marcelo Rojo
Current Streak: Buzukja recently scored his first UFC win after a rough start, while Marshall has lost two straight
X-Factor: Neither man is a defensive specialist
How these two match up: Contenders Series veterans collide.

Despite training with Merab Dvalishvili and Aljamain Sterling at Serra-Longo, Buzukja is primarily a striker. He’s aggressive and likes to swing clubbing hooks. Marshall is no stranger to that game plan, though he’s a bit more likely to shoot for takedowns. So far in his young career, Marshall has proven himself a finisher, stopping five of his seven victories before the final bell.

Marshall is replacing Danny Silva on short-notice, but all the same, this is going to be a brawl! Both of these fighters are offense and volume-first Featherweight bruisers. Unlike Silva, however, Marshall might just switch things up with the wrestling, which could be a game-changer if he’s able to counter Buzukja’s aggressive offense with well-timed reactive shots.

That’s a tall ask on short-notice for a fighter with just nine professional fights, however. Buzukja’s fight team should also have him fairly well-prepared to deal with takedowns, so likely, he’s able to keep this thing standing, push the pace, and generally lead the dance.

Prediction: Buzukja via decision

LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 96 On ESPN+

BANTAMWEIGHT BATTLE! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return toBall Arena in Denver, Colo., on Sat., Aug. 24, 2024, for the first time since the historic 25thanniversary event in 2018 with a meaningful (albeit short-notice) showdown between top-ranked women’s Flyweight contenders RoseNamajunas (No. 6) vs. Tracy Cortez (No. 11). In UFC Denver’s co-main event, a thrilling Lightweight bout sees Denver’s own,Drew Dober, lock horns with Jean Silva, who is coming off a blistering knockout over Charles Jourdain just a few weeks ago (watch it).

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